88th Annual Oscar predictions

88th annual Oscar Predictions 

 Full disclosure for this year, in that I considered this a rather lackluster year for Oscar level movies.  This is probably the first year I haven’t seen them all and given the hysterical levels of hype given ‘La La land’ (a good movie, but hardly deserving all the nominations), I had a hard time motivating myself to see all the others.  Don’t get me wrong, I thought there were many good performances, but few stood out to me this year.  That being said, most of my picks will be based on buzz and politics.  We’ll see how I do:

Actor in a Leading Role: This is a challenging one.  I think the early favorite was Casey Affleck, but I’m sensing a third Oscar for Denzel

Casey Affleck in "Manchester by the Sea"

Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge"

Ryan Gosling in "La La Land"

Viggo Mortensen in "Captain Fantastic"

Denzel Washington in “Fences”  The Projected Winner

Actress in a Leading Role: The early money was on Natalie Portman, but ‘Jackie’ was so lackluster and I don’t think Portman’s turn in that role was that impressive.

Isabelle Huppert in "Elle"

Ruth Negga in "Loving"

Natalie Portman in "Jackie"

Emma Stone in "La La Land”  The Projected Winner

Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins”

Actor in a Supporting role: This is one of the few categories where I think each person nominated deserved the award… but it can only go to one. Mahershala Ali is the up and coming ‘it’ guy and this was his best performance to date. I love this guy. Also, they have to find a way to honor ‘Moonlight’ somehow.

Mahershala Ali in “Moonlight" The Projected Winner

Jeff Bridges in "Hell or High Water"

Lucas Hedges in "Manchester by the Sea"

Dev Patel in "Lion"

Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals”

Actress in a Supporting Role: This is the category I am most ambivalent about.  My first instinct is to go with Octavia Spencer as she has one of those cool first names, but no one does drama better that Viola Davis.  However, I would like to see Naomie Harris win. 

Viola Davis in “Fences" The Projected Winner

Naomie Harris in "Moonlight"

Nicole Kidman in "Lion"

Octavia Spencer in "Hidden Figures"

Michelle Williams in "Manchester by the Sea”

Best Picture:  This one is a slam dunk, which makes me a little sad.  Hollywood never gets tired of honoring itself and this musical is a throwback to Hollywood glory days.  Way overhyped movie, but it has all the mojo.

"Arrival"

"Fences"

"Hacksaw Ridge"

"Hell or High Water"

"Hidden Figures"

"La La Land” The Projected Winner

"Lion"

"Manchester by the Sea"

“Moonlight"

Best Director: And everyone is raving about Damien Chazelle, the 31 yr old wünderkind.  My personal favorite would be Denis Villeneuve, just because he rocks, but Mel Gibson probably deserved it.  However, because of his being on the ‘outs’ with the Hollywood community, I doubt he has a chance (I’m amazed he was even nominated)

"Arrival" - Denis Villeneuve

"Hacksaw Ridge" - Mel Gibson

"La La Land" - Damien Chazelle  The Projected Winner

"Manchester by the Sea" - Kenneth Lonergan

"Moonlight" - Barry Jenkins

So, let’s see how I do…

John Wick: Chapter 2

       Before the first ‘John Wick’ came out, the buzz was that it was a generic B-action film that marked how far Keanu Reeves had fallen from his prime years as a movie star.  It turned out to be everything the critics expected, but one thing the critics didn’t expect was that it was so well done for its’ genre and delivered such unapologetic non-stop visceral action, that it became the sleeper hit of the season. At its’ core, it was the simplest and most basic shoot-em-up revenge film one could imagine, but the talented choreography and a grey and somber filming palette was mesmerizing to behold.  Of course, with such success, the studios demand a sequel and instead of running from its’ B-movie origins, ‘John Wick: Chapter 2’ raises the stakes even higher by fiercely embracing it.

Once again, John Wick (Keanu Reeves)is trying to find a way to stay in retirement from his assassin past.  Unfortunately, in the shadowy underworld of assassins, there are rules and obligations that must be honored.  When the mysterious Santino shows up one day and lays down a blood marker to John Wick which basically is calling in a past debt where the possessor can demand any favor he requires from the recipient, John Wick tries to say ‘No’, but the consequences in the society of assassins for not honoring a blood marker is catastrophic.  After realizing that he cannot escape his ‘obligations’, John Wick comes out of retirement with the intent of this being his last foray into the secret underworld.

The plot points of the movie in both the original and the sequel are not as interesting as the secret underworld that Director Chad Stahelski creates and explores.  It’s a secret world right under our noses that seems eerily familiar, yet gothic and cultish at the same time.  A world where assassins can escape their violent world for momentary respite in ‘hallowed’ spaces.  They are obliged to obey rigid laws of civility with dire repercussions should they violate even the smallest norm or charter.  Presiding over this assassin’s member’s only club is Winston (Ian McShane), a king like hotelier who runs his Barony with civility and culture, with the underlying sense of dread should he be crossed.  In a world of short life spans, Winston has a long history with John Wick.  Even though we feel that Winston is secretly on John’s side, we know that his first priority is neutrality and maintaining the sanctity of the underworld society he has helped create.

Much of the charm of the movie is seeing how this movie adepts what would normally be the rules and regulations of a Mason’s Society to this violent underworld of killers, but let’s face it, people are coming to see the non-stop mayhem and John Wick delivers.  I thought it couldn’t get more violent than the first but I was wrong.  The violence is video game style violence that makes one wince, but never crosses the threshold of believability.  Keanu is still believable as an action hero and his box office reputation remains intact.  If you go expecting no more than just a well choreographed action film, then you will have a great time.   Don’t try to seek out more than that.  

I give this film ** 1/2 stars

John Wick 2 Trailer