88th Annual Oscar predictions

88th annual Oscar Predictions 

 Full disclosure for this year, in that I considered this a rather lackluster year for Oscar level movies.  This is probably the first year I haven’t seen them all and given the hysterical levels of hype given ‘La La land’ (a good movie, but hardly deserving all the nominations), I had a hard time motivating myself to see all the others.  Don’t get me wrong, I thought there were many good performances, but few stood out to me this year.  That being said, most of my picks will be based on buzz and politics.  We’ll see how I do:

Actor in a Leading Role: This is a challenging one.  I think the early favorite was Casey Affleck, but I’m sensing a third Oscar for Denzel

Casey Affleck in "Manchester by the Sea"

Andrew Garfield in "Hacksaw Ridge"

Ryan Gosling in "La La Land"

Viggo Mortensen in "Captain Fantastic"

Denzel Washington in “Fences”  The Projected Winner

Actress in a Leading Role: The early money was on Natalie Portman, but ‘Jackie’ was so lackluster and I don’t think Portman’s turn in that role was that impressive.

Isabelle Huppert in "Elle"

Ruth Negga in "Loving"

Natalie Portman in "Jackie"

Emma Stone in "La La Land”  The Projected Winner

Meryl Streep in "Florence Foster Jenkins”

Actor in a Supporting role: This is one of the few categories where I think each person nominated deserved the award… but it can only go to one. Mahershala Ali is the up and coming ‘it’ guy and this was his best performance to date. I love this guy. Also, they have to find a way to honor ‘Moonlight’ somehow.

Mahershala Ali in “Moonlight" The Projected Winner

Jeff Bridges in "Hell or High Water"

Lucas Hedges in "Manchester by the Sea"

Dev Patel in "Lion"

Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals”

Actress in a Supporting Role: This is the category I am most ambivalent about.  My first instinct is to go with Octavia Spencer as she has one of those cool first names, but no one does drama better that Viola Davis.  However, I would like to see Naomie Harris win. 

Viola Davis in “Fences" The Projected Winner

Naomie Harris in "Moonlight"

Nicole Kidman in "Lion"

Octavia Spencer in "Hidden Figures"

Michelle Williams in "Manchester by the Sea”

Best Picture:  This one is a slam dunk, which makes me a little sad.  Hollywood never gets tired of honoring itself and this musical is a throwback to Hollywood glory days.  Way overhyped movie, but it has all the mojo.

"Arrival"

"Fences"

"Hacksaw Ridge"

"Hell or High Water"

"Hidden Figures"

"La La Land” The Projected Winner

"Lion"

"Manchester by the Sea"

“Moonlight"

Best Director: And everyone is raving about Damien Chazelle, the 31 yr old wünderkind.  My personal favorite would be Denis Villeneuve, just because he rocks, but Mel Gibson probably deserved it.  However, because of his being on the ‘outs’ with the Hollywood community, I doubt he has a chance (I’m amazed he was even nominated)

"Arrival" - Denis Villeneuve

"Hacksaw Ridge" - Mel Gibson

"La La Land" - Damien Chazelle  The Projected Winner

"Manchester by the Sea" - Kenneth Lonergan

"Moonlight" - Barry Jenkins

So, let’s see how I do…