2018 Oscar predictions

        It’s that time a year again where I embarrass myself with my Oscar predictions. This year is particularly challenging as I feel there was a plethora of strong contenders in all categories.  I try to keep my personal feelings out of it and go with whom I think the Academy will choose, but it is difficult, especially when one has strong opinions or connections to certain films that they love.

That being said, I will try to keep my analytical rants to a minimum and just give the predictions.

Best Actor:  Slam dunk, it will be Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour”. Daniel Day-Lewis gave an incredible performance in a clunker of a film, but it is also his self proclaimed last film, so you never know if there will be an upset

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress:  I think this is the toughest of all the categories this year as everyone was stellar.  If I was the sole vote in the Academy I would be torn between Frances McDormand and Margot Robbie, but I think the mojo is with ‘Shape of Water’ this season, so I predict Sally Hawkins goes home with the statue

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Best Supporting Actor:  Sam Rockwell will walk away with it (although I was shocked when Stallone didn’t win for ‘Creed’ because I was equally confidant). I do believe not enough has been talked about co-star Woody Harrelson’s performance.  Richard Jenkins actually gave the performance I would have chosen.

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Supporting Actress:  Allison Janney will win.  Period! (or ‘.’).  Nothing else to discuss.

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Best Film:  Again, if I were the one choosing, I would be going back and forth between ‘Dunkirk’ and ‘Three Billboards..’.  Given that I am not, I think ‘Shape of Water’ will walk away with it given the mojo factor.  However, given last year’s ‘Moonlight’ controversy, it’s not a done deal.  ‘Get Out’ and ‘The Post’ may sneak in as last minute spoilers.

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Director:  Who should win?  Christopher Nolan or Jordan Peele (who had a career transformative year).  Who should be banned from movies and relegated to basic cable? Paul Thomas Anderson. I don’t care what the arthouse snobs are saying, “Phantom Thread” was painful to watch.  I think Guillermo del Toro will win.  Not my choice, but I will be satisfied and feel that it is deserved.  

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

So there we have it.  It’s on record.  Despite my passionate opinions, this was a great year for innovative and Oscar calibre films and I enjoyed them all (except ‘Phantom Thread’).  I wish ‘The Disaster Artist’ would have made it in there somewhere, but we can’t have everything we want.

Black Panther

            The long anticipated Black Panther movie has arrived and it doesn’t disappoint. I have to confess, given all the hype that has led up to this film, it had me nervous, but Director/Writer Ryan Coogler has an impressive record with ‘Fruitvale Station’ and ‘Creed’ and I felt that, given he is also a comic nerd, Black Panther would deliver.  There’s always a fear that after so many super-hero movies the format will become stale and worn down, but ‘Black Panther’ does what super hero stories do best:  Introduce excitement and action along with fresh perspectives and viewpoints.   Coogler deftly balances everything that makes superhero movies magic and delivers it in a satisfying action adventure.  He is also able to delve into the world of politics and social justice without alienating anyone in the audience.  No easy feat in today’s polarized world.

                The Black Panther is being hailed as the first major super hero movie helmed by an African-American character (it’s not, there are many examples, most notably ‘Blade’), which is appropriate as The Black Panther was the Comic World’s first African-American superhero, created and first appearing way back in Fantastic Four #54 in July of 1966.  Stan Lee and Jack Kirby introduced T’Challa as the powerful and regal King of the fictional land of Wakanda.  An isolated, yet technologically advanced society powered by the mystical substance known as Vibranium.  While Lee and Kirby exploded American stereotypes of previous comic book characters of color, they also embraced African stereotypes which would be embarrassing by today’s standards.  Still, for the time period of the tumultuous sixties, it was truly revolutionary to create such a powerful and dominant figure as the Black Panther.  What was equally ground breaking was that he was embraced by all comic nerds and was not only welcomed, but sought after in the Avenger’s world.  Chadwick Boseman’s portrayal of the Black Panther is able to capture all the character’s regal power and bring to life a character comic book fans have been waiting for since the inception of the MCU.

                Comics have always been a platform for examining societal issues and Coogler’s updated take on the Black Panther legend is no different.  The interweaving of modern issues of American social injustice into the pageantry and color of the fictional Wakanda is skillfully done, but Coogler did not stop there.  He injected international spy intrigue as well as cool future tech on par with any Ironman movie.  In addition, it has not been overlooked that the strongest characters in this film were women and each one could merit a movie in their own right.  The true break out star is Shuri (Letitia Wright), who plays T’challa’s sister and tech guru.  She is the ‘Q’ to  T’Challa’s James Bond.  She dominates every scene she is in and I can’t wait to see what the MCU has planned for her.  Oscar winner Lupita Nyung’o is Nakia, T’Challa’s love interest.  While not the warrior that he is, she is by no means the “Damsel in Distress”.  Strong and independent, she is T’Challa’s moral compass.  In terms of sheer badassery, Okoye (Danai Gurira of ‘Walking Dead’ fame), is the head of T’Challa’s Royal Guard and is peerless in her fighting skill.  While she deeply respects and loves T’Challa, her first loyalty is to Wakanda and she serves her country unwaveringly. 

                The entire cast consists of an almost ‘who’s who’ of black actors in Hollywood.  Everyone from veterans Forrest Whitaker and Angela Basset to newcomers Daniel Kaluuya and Winston Duke, there are no small parts in this film.  Of course, the most important thing in any super-hero movie is the villain and ‘Black Panther’ is no different.  Michael B Jordan brings T’Challa’s arch-nemesis. Kilmonger to life as an emotionally damaged America ex-special forces soldier of Wakandan heritage.  Kilmonger’s singular focus of wresting control of the Wakanda throne from T’Challa in order to enact revenge upon the world makes him a formidable foe.  Of course, what makes a cinematic villain great is not just his fearsome abilities, but the ability of the audience to have some measure of sympathy for him as well.  While we may not agree with Kilmonger, we can certainly understand the events that have shaped his life and perspectives.  As much as we want our hero to win and Kilmomger to lose, we empathize with his plight and pain.

                It takes a gifted Writer/Director to give us both meaning and emotion alongside of action, adventure, and spectacle. Superhero movies at their best give us that, something elitist movie snobs will never understand.  Powerful and meaningful stories do not have to come at the expense of fun and excitement.  Black Panther once again proves that there is still plenty of life and freshness in the superhero genre and whets our appetite for the upcoming ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ finale coming up in May.  Some people say it’s about time the Black Panther movie finally happened, I say that it was well worth the wait.  I can think of no other Director I would have rather handled this film that Ryan Cooglar.  If you can fight through the opening weekend crowds put this film on the top of your list.

I give this film **** ½ stars out of five.

Black Panther Trailer