2018 Oscar predictions

        It’s that time a year again where I embarrass myself with my Oscar predictions. This year is particularly challenging as I feel there was a plethora of strong contenders in all categories.  I try to keep my personal feelings out of it and go with whom I think the Academy will choose, but it is difficult, especially when one has strong opinions or connections to certain films that they love.

That being said, I will try to keep my analytical rants to a minimum and just give the predictions.

Best Actor:  Slam dunk, it will be Gary Oldman in “Darkest Hour”. Daniel Day-Lewis gave an incredible performance in a clunker of a film, but it is also his self proclaimed last film, so you never know if there will be an upset

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress:  I think this is the toughest of all the categories this year as everyone was stellar.  If I was the sole vote in the Academy I would be torn between Frances McDormand and Margot Robbie, but I think the mojo is with ‘Shape of Water’ this season, so I predict Sally Hawkins goes home with the statue

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Best Supporting Actor:  Sam Rockwell will walk away with it (although I was shocked when Stallone didn’t win for ‘Creed’ because I was equally confidant). I do believe not enough has been talked about co-star Woody Harrelson’s performance.  Richard Jenkins actually gave the performance I would have chosen.

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Supporting Actress:  Allison Janney will win.  Period! (or ‘.’).  Nothing else to discuss.

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Best Film:  Again, if I were the one choosing, I would be going back and forth between ‘Dunkirk’ and ‘Three Billboards..’.  Given that I am not, I think ‘Shape of Water’ will walk away with it given the mojo factor.  However, given last year’s ‘Moonlight’ controversy, it’s not a done deal.  ‘Get Out’ and ‘The Post’ may sneak in as last minute spoilers.

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Best Director:  Who should win?  Christopher Nolan or Jordan Peele (who had a career transformative year).  Who should be banned from movies and relegated to basic cable? Paul Thomas Anderson. I don’t care what the arthouse snobs are saying, “Phantom Thread” was painful to watch.  I think Guillermo del Toro will win.  Not my choice, but I will be satisfied and feel that it is deserved.  

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

So there we have it.  It’s on record.  Despite my passionate opinions, this was a great year for innovative and Oscar calibre films and I enjoyed them all (except ‘Phantom Thread’).  I wish ‘The Disaster Artist’ would have made it in there somewhere, but we can’t have everything we want.